Wheeler Writes

Say what you will, but Super Tuesday was the best demonstration of Democracy at work I have seen in a long time.  And —- the “political establishment” is throwing a temper tantrum worthy of a two year old.  Fearful of losing their long held power over the selection of our political leaders, they are in a panic that the American people might have something to say about who becomes the next President.

I read the New York Times every morning to find out what is going on in the world, but this last couple of months it has become more like a Supermarket Rag.  The bias expressed in the editorial section has given me pause in the past, but that is to be expected.  They write what they believe just as I do with this blog.  Unfortunately that bias has become something close to slander and it’s all over the front page of the Times.

Party leaders of the Democratic Party are breathing a sigh of relief today that they may not have to rely on their “Super Delegates” to overrule the people’s choice of a nominee.  The Republican Party leaders (whoever they may be) have a real threat on their hands.  The Party has moved way to the right in their quest for power but ironically the guy winning the nomination is more of a “centrist” than any other candidate of either party.

Voters seemed to have figured that out and realize that Washington will never change if the current ideological war between the parties continues.  When Donald Trump first announced his candidacy I could not take him seriously.  His comments about Mexicans and John McCain were very offensive to me as they were to virtually everyone.  But as I look at his positions on different issues he’s definitely close to the middle.  Holding a press conference last night instead of a “demagoguery pep rally” was very clever.  I listened closely and I must admit, I was impressed.

How could an individual with absolutely no experience as a politician, whose ideas for solving America’s problems are extreme at best and offensive to many, be leading all the professional politicians running for the Republican Party’s nomination?  Every day we read of, or hear, another “expert” attempting to explain what I call “The Donald Phenomena.”  On the surface, it is perplexing, when I think about many of the ideas he has put forth as solutions for our problems.

My “expert” opinion is that he is leading in the polls not because of what he says, but rather, what he represents.  He has “zero” connection to the “political establishment.”  For too long we have been governed by “career politicians,” who are dependent on, and beholden to, the “political establishment.”  Many eligible voters have come to believe that their vote just doesn’t count.  Trump may be using the Republican Party nominating process to reach his goal but it’s clear to me that he is the most successful “Independent” we’ve ever seen.

Those with political power, the Wall Street Banks, Unions, and the Media, define the “political establishment.”  Trump doesn’t need their money, creates his own media and will never court a relationship with most union leaders.  Frankly, he has become a serious threat to those with political power.

I don’t believe he will win and that is not what they fear.  Donald Trump is showing the world that a candidate, with no connection to the “political establishment” can win.  That scenario scares the hell out of them.  His success may very well motivate others, who are not “career politicians,” to serve the people of this country.  God knows the “career politicians” we are offered, by the “political establishment,” are not our “best and brightest.”

Winning the “money race” has always been a significant determinant in every political race but next in importance is the endorsement of those who control or influence large numbers of voters.  Several years ago, on a flight from Washington D.C. back to L.A. I had the pleasure of sitting next to a woman who was the second in command at a very large Union.  It was one of the most entertaining conversations I have ever had on a long flight, and one thing I will always remember was her stories regarding politicians seeking funds and endorsements from her Union.  “Groveling” is probably a more appropriate term than “begging” but whichever term you choose, she told me that most politicians were spending more than half their time raising money for the next election and/or offering their loyalty for an endorsement.

In my last “post” I expressed my hope that the continuing evolution of Social Media will lessen the impact of money in our elections but there is another change coming, thanks to Social Media, which may not be as positive.  We have developed a culture of “Celebrity Worship” in our country and although celebrity endorsements have been around, there was no Social Media connecting the celebrity with his or her fans.  Social Media creates a much more personal and intimate relationship that may be a lot more powerful.  Katy Perry has over 70 million followers, LeBron James 23 million, Justin Beiber 64 million, etc., etc.  Presidential candidates can only dream of such celebrity status. Hillary Clinton has 1.7 million followers while on the Republican side, much to my surprise; Donald Trump has over 2 million.  (Trump’s numbers probably have nothing to do with his recently announced bid for the White House.)

Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in 2008 is widely believed to have made the difference in his victory over Hillary Clinton.  At that time, many believed Oprah was the most powerful woman in America.  Basketball fans saw a simple Justin Bieber “tweet” put Kyle Lowry in the NBA All-Star Game.

Rightly or wrongly, celebrities have enormous marketing power.  Next year they may not be selling just shoes and cologne, they may be selling us politicians.  We may even see those candidates with the most money lose to those with the best Celebrity Endorsements.  The Media and all the political consultants may not like it, but the Social Media changes are coming.

“Raise more money than your opponents.”  Sadly, this strategy more often than not, leads to success in politics.  It also corrupts our political system and leaves us far short of our desire to have “a government of the people, by the people, and for the people.”

Once the money has been raised (and all the promises made), how is that money being spent by those running for office?  I didn’t have to spend a lot of time using Google to confirm my suspicion that the biggest expenditures are for “media buys,” somewhere between 55-75% depending upon the year and the political office being sought.

Political campaigns are a huge source of revenue for the major networks and their local affiliates.  It’s billions of dollars, and the related expenses are negligible.  It has to be the most profitable segment of their business.  Recognizing this, I wouldn’t expect to see much effort from the Media to advocate any changes.

But change is coming for the following reasons:

1.    Social Media is a powerful tool, which can be used to reach voters.  Television ads may still be effective with older voters but the end is near.

2.    The cost of using Social Media is negligible.  Those running for office will not have to sell their soul to the highest bidder to get their name and message “out there.” “Big money” will no longer be writing the script.  That should be appealing to every voter.

Every day we see how technology and Social Media is changing the way we live, how services and products are delivered to consumers, and how we interact with others.  In my next post I will discuss the coming revolutions in our political system that may bring us closer to the democracy our Founding Fathers envisioned.