Category Archives: Politics

The Pollsters Have No Access

Before reading this you should go back and read again “WHAT THE POLLS ARE TELLING US?”, posted back in February.  Nothing has changed regarding the excruciatingly difficult challenge faced by those attempting to accurately forecast the election results next week.

According to most Polls, Joe Biden has an insurmountable lead and will coast to victory over President Trump.  However, the Media, recalling the results four years ago, is taking no chances this time.  Even with Biden’s big lead in the Polls, and with just one week to go, they are employing what I call their “HATE STRATEGY” (which I wrote about back in March 2016).  Only now it’s on steroids.  

So I’ve been trying to understand why.  I’ve observed a lot of Presidential elections since my first back in 1968 and I can’t recall witnessing what I’m seeing now.  It’s almost as if the Media is having a panic attack, in spite of Biden’s big lead.  What are they afraid of?  The dire forecast, back in 2016, of the looming disaster of a Trump Presidency, has made the Media look foolish if not corrupt.  Even so, we have a Presidential election every four years giving us the opportunity to make a change.  It’s not like Russia or China where you can become “President For Life”. 

The fear of Trump is irrational unless there are other issues beyond the standard political issues.  The economy, foreign policy, national defense, health care etc. are the issues we usually consider when electing a President.  But what other issues are driving this obsession to get rid of Trump?  Perhaps the Political Establishment has other things to fear.

But let me digress.  If the Pollsters had access to every opinion expressed in every phone call, text message, e-mail, etc. by every eligible voter it would be relatively easy to forecast the winner of every election.  But obviously they don’t have access to that information.

That information is exclusive to the NSA and others who are part of our intelligence establishment.   I believe the NSA has a very accurate forecast of the results of next week’s election.

And perhaps that forecast has been shared with others, who are terrified of another four years of a Trump Presidency.  After all he is an outsider, and not in “The Club”!   

2 Comments

Filed under Home, Politics

WHAT THE POLLS ARE TELLING US?

Actually, very little!  Four years ago most people were surprised by the failure of polls to forecast accurately the outcome of numerous elections, yet now, the media continues to report the results of current polls that claim to show us the future.  But the job of the Pollsters has become excruciatingly difficult.  

In the past, the degree of success for a polling company was primarily determined by the design of the sample.  Using a sample size of fewer than 1,000 to reflect the opinion of millions required a lot of skill.  And some were very skilled and showed consistently good results.

But oh how the world has changed.  One of the unintended consequences of the technological revolution is the advent of the ubiquitous “robo call”!  Pollsters need people in their sample to answer the phone.  I’m betting most people won’t answer the phone unless they know who’s calling.  At best they will let it go through to voicemail, and I doubt there will be many people returning the pollster’s call.

Combined with the increasing desire of many to keep their opinions private tells me the polls this year will not be a very reliable source of useful information.  However, the Media will continue to report polling results simply because it gives them something to report.  But why the Democrats have been using poll results as one of the criteria for participation in their debates is beyond me.

Fortunately, we’re entering the Primary Season and we will begin to get a measure of what actual voters are thinking, not what pollsters say voters are thinking.   

Leave a comment

Filed under Home, Politics

Helpful Hints for Nancy Pelosi

What will Corporations do with the hundreds of billions of dollars they will not have to give to our Government?  The choices are relatively few but all of them create a great deal of stimulus for our economy:

  • Pay employees more.
  • Hire more people.
  • Invest in plant and equipment.
  • Spend more money on R&D.
  • Increase dividends to shareholders.
  • Buy back shares of their own stock.

Who could be against any of these actions?  And as expected, this is precisely what is happening.

The last two options, if chosen, will be criticized as only helping all those wealthy shareholders of Corporate stock.

Not so!  Those benefitting include everyone with a 401-K plan and members of Defined Benefit Plans.  Hard working Americans.

Nancy, it’s not complicated.  After reading your opinion of the cut in the corporate tax rate I’m hoping this brief analysis will perhaps help you refrain from continuing to make a fool of yourself.

3 Comments

Filed under Home, Politics

The “Political Establishment” has been Trumped

In the past when one of our two Political Parties have controlled both the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch, the Party’s agenda is quickly put in place.  With Donald Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of both houses of Congress why have we not seen the Republican agenda moving forward?

Think about it!  Should we really be surprised?  Let’s face it, Trump may have won the Republican nomination but has everybody forgotten how the career politicians in the Republican Party opposed Trump.  Trump is an “Independent”.  The Republican nomination was not supposed to go to an “outsider”.    I’m guessing that many Republican politicians in Washington are just as determined, as the Democrats, to see Trump fail.

To those who are part of the Political Establishment, Trump is a virus infecting their hold on power.  The strategy for both the Republican and Democratic Parties, is to “freeze” Trump out ensuring that his Presidency is a “failed Presidency”.  Hoping that such a failure will discourage others.  They fear a lot more than a Trump Presidency, they fear it foreshadows the end of the two party system.  According to a Gallup Poll taken in 2014, 43% of U.S. voters are registered as “Independent”, 30% are registered as Democrats and 26% as Republican.  In 1988 31% were registered as Independent.

Trump showed that you can win an election:

  • Without the support of one of the two major Parties.
  • Using Social Media and the Internet to connect with voters.
  • And without selling your vote (and soul) to Wall Street, the Unions, Big Pharma, and others willing to fund your campaign in exchange for your vote.

I’m guessing that if the Republicans continue to undermine Trumps ability to deliver the agenda that got him elected, Trump may withdraw from the Republican Party, and declare that he is in fact an “Independent”.  I would love to see that!  This would no doubt encourage other smart, successful, men and women to run for office without being “labeled” or held accountable to those dictating the agenda of the two major Parties.  Citizens who truly desire to give something back to this great Country.

5 Comments

Filed under Home, Politics

Trump the “Independent”

Wow!  I never dreamed we could elect a President who was opposed by both major political parties.  I thought we would see a woman in the White House much sooner.   He took on the entire “political establishment”, and won.

Back in March I wrote about how low so much of the Media had stooped in their attempts to defeat Donald Trump.  (Read the post, entitled “The Hate Strategy”, because it is even more relevant now.)  The “political establishment” feels their power is slipping away and is using their propagandist in an attempt to convince us that this Trump presidency is going to be a disaster.

All the way up until Election Day we were told the Stock Market would crash if Trump won.  The Stock Market has always been the most reliable indicator of what lies ahead, far more accurate than all the “experts”.  It’s early, but the “market” is sending a strong message of optimism.

Now that they have lost, and their agenda is threatened, they are stepping up their game, and it is scary.  I hope it does not lead to violence but that seems to be the goal of the New York Times, USA Today, Bloomberg, CNN, MSNBC, etc.  It’s “deplorable!”  The propaganda machine of the Democratic Party failed, and I hope they will start to realize that they may not be as smart as they seem to think they are.  Not likely, but thanks to the Internet and Social Media, they do not have as much power as they once did.

Donald Trump may not be Politically Correct and many of his comments were hurtful.  But the Clintons are “Politically Corrupt” and their vast propaganda machine could not hide it all.  The Clintons, have only themselves to blame.  Unfortunately they let down so many people who believed in them.

Hillary would have had so many obligations to those who have funded her campaigns and created the Clinton’s tremendous wealth over the years.  Trump’s only obligations are to the voters who elected him.  I wish him well and hope he will use that freedom to accomplish great things.

And for those who think the Electoral College should be abolished, are they also hoping to dismantle the Senate?  We have a Federation of 50 states and it would have fallen apart long ago without each State having a voice.

1 Comment

Filed under Home, Politics

“The Hate Strategy”

I am sure you could think of half a dozen individuals you would like to be our next president rather than Donald Trump. I know I could, but not one of the professional politicians running this year would be on my list. I honestly believe Trump is winning because so many people are voting against the “political establishment” when they cast their vote for Trump. I have written in the past that the day was coming, when no longer will the candidate who raises the most money, be declared the winner long before the votes are cast. That day has arrived and apparently they still don’t “get it.” The flood of money being raised to stop Trump is simply driving more votes his way.

So the media is now starting to play the “Hate Card.” Just read the editorials, look at the political cartoons, and the covers of various magazines. Images of Hitler, Mussolini, KKK etc. are being used to inflame voters passion against this “evil monster.” “He must be stopped!” When the great “propaganda machine” is unleashed, by those who are seeing their agenda fail, mayhem and violence are sure to follow.

They’ve done it before. As a Vietnam Veteran returning home in the summer of 1969 I experienced the hatred the media generated towards all returning vets. We were told to change into civilian clothes as soon as possible and keep our Vietnam experience off our job applications. The media was against the war but their “hate campaign” was towards those of us who fought for our country.

So now they’ve focused the propaganda machine on Trump and anyone who dares to support him. His only support is from “uneducated white males” according to many in the media. I have always loved “The Week” magazine but they have joined the fray. A U.K. polling company claims that 20% of Trump supporters believe Lincoln should never have freed the slaves. So I went to Google and searched “Trumps comments about African Americans” and came up with nothing negative. Yet the media is intentionally trying to pit African Americans against Trump. Maybe it will work, but I believe most Americans are tired of being told by the media, what to think and who should get their vote.

2 Comments

Filed under Home, Politics

The People Have Spoken

Say what you will, but Super Tuesday was the best demonstration of Democracy at work I have seen in a long time.  And —- the “political establishment” is throwing a temper tantrum worthy of a two year old.  Fearful of losing their long held power over the selection of our political leaders, they are in a panic that the American people might have something to say about who becomes the next President.

I read the New York Times every morning to find out what is going on in the world, but this last couple of months it has become more like a Supermarket Rag.  The bias expressed in the editorial section has given me pause in the past, but that is to be expected.  They write what they believe just as I do with this blog.  Unfortunately that bias has become something close to slander and it’s all over the front page of the Times.

Party leaders of the Democratic Party are breathing a sigh of relief today that they may not have to rely on their “Super Delegates” to overrule the people’s choice of a nominee.  The Republican Party leaders (whoever they may be) have a real threat on their hands.  The Party has moved way to the right in their quest for power but ironically the guy winning the nomination is more of a “centrist” than any other candidate of either party.

Voters seemed to have figured that out and realize that Washington will never change if the current ideological war between the parties continues.  When Donald Trump first announced his candidacy I could not take him seriously.  His comments about Mexicans and John McCain were very offensive to me as they were to virtually everyone.  But as I look at his positions on different issues he’s definitely close to the middle.  Holding a press conference last night instead of a “demagoguery pep rally” was very clever.  I listened closely and I must admit, I was impressed.

2 Comments

Filed under Politics

The “great” Debates

In the past I have lamented about people wasting their time watching reality shows such as the Kardashians or Housewives of Wherever. The Networks however, love the genre. The shows cost little to produce and there is no need to hire any real talent.   This is why they love Presidential Debates. They are also cheap to produce, and as with all reality shows, they don’t require a cast of talented people.

Tonight viewers will have the opportunity to watch the next Republican Presidential Debate. In hopes of maximizing the ratings, Fox has been creating as much hype as possible by “marketing” the show as a “smack-down” between Megyn Kelly and Donald Trump. Many of the things Donald Trump says are offensive to me, but I do like it when he goes after the “political establishment.”

As I write this, Trump has decided not to participate in tonight’s debate. I do not know what his motives are but do we really need to hear over and over again how each candidate is going to save America. “When I am President yada, yada, yada.” Perhaps we need to hear it twice, just to make certain there is consistency, but after that they should all go back to their day jobs, especially the governors and senators who are already on the public payroll.

These never ending campaigns are perhaps one of the reasons so many people choose not to vote. It’s not just exhausting for the candidates but for the voters as well. By the time we get to vote, the candidates have so demeaned each other it’s hard to get excited about voting for anyone. So on this occasion, I agree with Mr. Trump, this debate, ten months before election day, is probably a waste of everyone’s time. There are more important things to do.

I, for one, won’t be watching. My valuable time will be spent more constructively, walking my dog Joe.

P.S.   Michael Bloomberg must have read my last post: The Donald Phenomena.

3 Comments

Filed under Home, Politics

“The Donald Phenomena”

How could an individual with absolutely no experience as a politician, whose ideas for solving America’s problems are extreme at best and offensive to many, be leading all the professional politicians running for the Republican Party’s nomination?  Every day we read of, or hear, another “expert” attempting to explain what I call “The Donald Phenomena.”  On the surface, it is perplexing, when I think about many of the ideas he has put forth as solutions for our problems.

My “expert” opinion is that he is leading in the polls not because of what he says, but rather, what he represents.  He has “zero” connection to the “political establishment.”  For too long we have been governed by “career politicians,” who are dependent on, and beholden to, the “political establishment.”  Many eligible voters have come to believe that their vote just doesn’t count.  Trump may be using the Republican Party nominating process to reach his goal but it’s clear to me that he is the most successful “Independent” we’ve ever seen.

Those with political power, the Wall Street Banks, Unions, and the Media, define the “political establishment.”  Trump doesn’t need their money, creates his own media and will never court a relationship with most union leaders.  Frankly, he has become a serious threat to those with political power.

I don’t believe he will win and that is not what they fear.  Donald Trump is showing the world that a candidate, with no connection to the “political establishment” can win.  That scenario scares the hell out of them.  His success may very well motivate others, who are not “career politicians,” to serve the people of this country.  God knows the “career politicians” we are offered, by the “political establishment,” are not our “best and brightest.”

6 Comments

Filed under Politics

How to Win an Election II

Winning the “money race” has always been a significant determinant in every political race but next in importance is the endorsement of those who control or influence large numbers of voters.  Several years ago, on a flight from Washington D.C. back to L.A. I had the pleasure of sitting next to a woman who was the second in command at a very large Union.  It was one of the most entertaining conversations I have ever had on a long flight, and one thing I will always remember was her stories regarding politicians seeking funds and endorsements from her Union.  “Groveling” is probably a more appropriate term than “begging” but whichever term you choose, she told me that most politicians were spending more than half their time raising money for the next election and/or offering their loyalty for an endorsement.

In my last “post” I expressed my hope that the continuing evolution of Social Media will lessen the impact of money in our elections but there is another change coming, thanks to Social Media, which may not be as positive.  We have developed a culture of “Celebrity Worship” in our country and although celebrity endorsements have been around, there was no Social Media connecting the celebrity with his or her fans.  Social Media creates a much more personal and intimate relationship that may be a lot more powerful.  Katy Perry has over 70 million followers, LeBron James 23 million, Justin Beiber 64 million, etc., etc.  Presidential candidates can only dream of such celebrity status. Hillary Clinton has 1.7 million followers while on the Republican side, much to my surprise; Donald Trump has over 2 million.  (Trump’s numbers probably have nothing to do with his recently announced bid for the White House.)

Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in 2008 is widely believed to have made the difference in his victory over Hillary Clinton.  At that time, many believed Oprah was the most powerful woman in America.  Basketball fans saw a simple Justin Bieber “tweet” put Kyle Lowry in the NBA All-Star Game.

Rightly or wrongly, celebrities have enormous marketing power.  Next year they may not be selling just shoes and cologne, they may be selling us politicians.  We may even see those candidates with the most money lose to those with the best Celebrity Endorsements.  The Media and all the political consultants may not like it, but the Social Media changes are coming.

Leave a comment

Filed under Politics